Colts to gallop over Saints in Super Bowl

Published 10:38 am Thursday, February 4, 2010

By FILIP BONDY
New York Daily News

It has been 17 years since the two top-seeded teams in their conferences advanced all the way to the Super Bowl, surviving all the turnovers, penalties and plot twists along the way.

When the Indianapolis Colts meet the New Orleans Saints on Feb. 7 in Miami, Fla., no one will be able to say these teams were fortunate to be there. Both the Colts and Saints own formidable passing attacks, featuring two of the top quarterbacks in the league. Both of them fashioned comeback after comeback during the regular season and then again in the playoffs.

They are never really out of a game, which will make it difficult to shut off this Super Bowl in the fourth quarter, regardless of the score.

Here’s a look at the matchups:

Passing Game
Peyton Manning may well be the best quarterback in NFL history. His throws are pinpoint accurate, but it is his mind that makes the difference. He is a brilliant play caller out there on the field, and makes chess-computer-like adjustments on the fly to neutralize opponents’ tactics. In the AFC championship game against the Jets, Manning again demonstrated the uncanny presence of mind to call a quick snap in order to catch an opponent with 12 men on the field.

Manning will hurry up, slow down. He’ll mix his targets. Wide receivers Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, plus tight end Dallas Clark, all know they need only create minimal space between themselves and cover backs. As long as the protection holds — and it usually does — Manning will put the ball exactly in the right place.

Drew Brees is a fine quarterback, though not in Manning’s class. In some ways, he has more options available to him than Manning, because he can hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield and Jeremy Shockey remains a prototypical, tough tight end. His primary wide receivers are Marques Colston and Devery Henderson.
Edge: Colts

Running Game
The Colts were statistically the worst NFL team in rushing. They will pass twice as often as they run, using the ground game only to keep defenses honest and to keep their own offensive line sharp and aggressive. And yet against the Jets’ vaunted defense, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combined for a healthy 98 yards on 22 carries, averaging nearly 4.5 yards per run.

The Saints have power and speed in Pierre Thomas and Bush, a streaky runner who is still performing under expectations on many days. He gained only eight yards on seven carries during the overtime victory over Minnesota in the NFC championship game.
Slight edge: Saints

Defense
The Colts are known as mighty mites around the league, small but swift up front. Their bookend pass rushers at defensive end, Dwight Freeney, 268 pounds, and Robert Mathis, 245, protect the edge and put pressure on quarterbacks with or without the aid of blitzes.

This usually allows the Colts to double-team receivers in comfortable zone or man coverage. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer came in this year and successfully tweaked the defense installed by former coach Tony Dungy. The Colts include some blitz packages now and will bring up to eight men to the line on running plays.

The Saints’ defense appeared terribly vulnerable against Brett Favre’s arm in that NFC championship game. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter, the two cornerbacks, will have an even more difficult time against Manning. New Orleans will try to hammer Manning the way they did Favre, with pressure from tackle Remi Ayodele and defensive ends Bobby McCray and Will Smith. The Saints had some late, hard hits on Favre. Expect the same intimidation tactics against Manning.
Edge: Colts

Coaches
This is the first time in the Super Bowl as a head coach for both the Saints’ Sean Payton and the Colts’ Jim Caldwell. Payton is an offensive specialist and something of a control freak, though he has been listening constructively to Brees’ input. Caldwell may be the coach, but Manning is the guy calling the plays at the line of scrimmage.
Edge: Even

X-Factors
Because these two teams are so pass-oriented, they are both great at coming back, and lousy at running down the clock and sitting on leads. This should make everyone rightfully nervous.

Many of the Colts have been here before, winning the Super Bowl three years ago. This is the first title game for the Saints, however, who might just be a bit nervous. You want experience? Indy’s kicker, Matt Stover, 42, has 20 years in the NFL.

Both sides are dome teams, coming outside to play. The Saints will be the sentimental favorites in Miami, gaining crowd support as underdogs and as a team representing a city that was so devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

It’s just hard having much confidence in New Orleans after the Vikings handed them five turnovers and still nearly won the game on 310 yards passing. Now the Saints get Manning at the helm, throwing underneath, to the sideline or over the top.

The Pick

Colts 34, Saints 21.

Filip Bondy is a sports columnist for the New York Daily News.