LANSING —  It looks like maybe the groundhog got it wrong.
The mildest Michigan winter in recent memory has the state’s farmers balancing eager anticipation for an early start with wary hesitation about what could go wrong if Mother Nature pulls a fast one.
Accustomed to taking risks and running their businesses at the mercy of the uncontrollable elements, the eyes of the state’s second-largest industry are darting among the sky, the forecast, the fields and the calendar.
Industry experts, however, know to respect the unpredictability of Michigan’s quirky climate and give Mother Nature a wide berth — especially this time of year. With unseasonably warm temperatures, no ice on the Great Lakes, precious little snowfall in most parts of the state and no foreseeable return of winter, farmers are facing an unusually confounding list of what-ifs —with just as much as cause for cautious optimism as there is for nail-biting.
“We’re at a very vulnerable stage at this point because of the mild winter and early warm-up,” said Ken Nye, horticulture specialist at Michigan Farm Bureau (MFB).
“But we could also get to May 1 and be just fine.”
The state’s many maple syrup producers may have the most to worry about. Late winter and early spring normally means cold nights and daytime temps gradually inching above freezing, causing maple sap to rise and fall within the tree’s tissues—not the case this year.
“This more consistent, early warmth we’ve been seeing causes that moisture to rise in the tree, but then it just stays up there,” Nye said.
The thousands of orchards that line the west coast of the Lower Peninsula face several kinds of uncertainty.
Prematurely developing fruit tree buds are particularly susceptible to late frosts and freezes. Under similar circumstances in one recent year, the state’s cherry crop took a 90-percent hit from a late freeze.
That makes for a bad year for one of the state’s most beloved and distinctive crops; Michigan leads the nation in tart cherry production and is the no. 4 producer of sweet cherries.
Furthermore, the lack of ice on the Great Lakes alters their moderating effect on shoreline microclimates, meaning the potential for unpredictable temperature extremes all along Lake Michigan — the “gold coast” that’s home to the vast majority of Michigan cherries, apples, peaches, blueberries and dozens of other fruit and vegetable crops.
The relative lack of extreme cold for any length of time also raises the likelihood of pests — both weeds and bugs — surviving through winter and potentially threatening crops earlier than normal and in greater numbers.
“We rely on that frozen ground in mid-winter to kill off a lot pests,” said Bob Boehm, MFB’s commodity and marketing manager. “We haven’t seen much of that this season.”
That said, among the silver linings of a mild winter is the likelihood for a more robust bee population. Augmented by the still-mysterious colony collapse disorder, recent normal winters have seen hive losses of up to 75 percent. Barring a surprise snap of bitter cold, the coming spring is likely to see a far better recovery numbers—good news for the fruit and vegetable growers who rely on them for pollination.
The downside of that? What’s good for bees is good for most other forms of wildlife as well — including the numerous deer, turkeys and cranes that gorge themselves on fresh field crops throughout the growing season, wreaking incalculable losses on farmers’ bottom lines.
Springtime snowmelt is usually a vital source of early-year soil moisture to get field crops off to a good start.
“Right now we’re about average in terms of soil moisture,” said Boehm, but the lack of any substantial snowpack is only one of many water-related variables. A warm spring following a nearly snow-free winter means lower water tables and increased evaporation of what soil moisture there is.
That can set a tempting trap for farmers as eager to get into the fields as cabin-fevered golfers are to hit the links.
“People will be anxious to get going, especially with row crops,” Boehm said, referring to the corn, soybeans, sugar beets and dry beans that occupy the majority of Michigan’s farm acreage.
“I expect to see people in the fields as early as possible — especially after last year’s long, wet spring delayed planting so long.”
Early field work could mean hitches in the availability of the vital inputs farmers need to get under way every year—fertilizer, feed and last-minute seed purchases.
“If we start a couple weeks early — if things get out of synch — it can be challenging to get inputs here in time,” Boehm said. “This is the unique thing about agriculture. We deal with this kind of uncertainty every year.”