Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to take division titles
Published 5:39 am Tuesday, April 1, 2008
By By FILIP BONDY / New York Daily News
Pity the New York Yankees, just for a moment. Bugs from Lake Erie got them in the playoffs last fall. They were dragged through the steroid muck by the Mitchell Report like a ragged wedding dress. Their cross-borough rivals, the Mets, signed Johan Santana. They waged a war of spikes with Tampa Bay this spring. And history says the Yanks can't win a title with a Republican president in office (50 years, and counting).
Yes, these are tough times for Bomber backers, although fans of many other AL teams are probably more than a bit wary of a pinstripe revival. For now, we'll pick the Red Sox, Tigers and Angels to win division titles, and for the Yanks to sneak past the Indians for the wild card. Detroit looks strongest of all.
Here, a look at the division races, in predicted order of finish:
Eastern
Boston didn't do much in the offseason, although the defending champs carefully monitored the Santana situation just in case the Yankees were getting too interested. Mostly, the Red Sox signed their own free agents, like starter Curt Schilling, third baseman Mike Lowell, catcher Doug Mirabelli and reliever Mike Timlin. They always have to worry about Schilling's health, but the Sox have a solid rotation top with Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27), Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40) and the ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (17-12, 4.76).
The Red Sox were a modest fifth in batting at .279, but they were second only behind the Yanks in runs scored. You don't argue with the middle of the lineup, which features DH David Ortiz (.332, 35 homers, 117 RBI) and Lowell (.324, 21, 120). Look for volatile outfielder Manny Ramirez (.296, 20, 88) to mount a strong comeback season. Jonathan Papelbon (37 for 40 saves) is the intimidating bullpen force. If the Bosox can survive intact after their taxing, opening trip to Japan, they should be just fine.
The Yanks still have Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez. But they feature a new bullhorn of a spokesperson in Hank Steinbrenner, a marine-cut manager in Joe Girardi and a pitching staff that relies more on youthful promise than ever before.
Basically, this season depends on the development of curveballer Phil Hughes and power pitcher Joba Chamberlain. Hughes will start behind Chien-Ming Wang (19-7, 3.70) and Andy Pettitte (15-9, 4.05), who is battling back problems already and is scarred by his admitted HGH use. Chamberlain will begin the season in the bullpen again, setting up Mariano Rivera (30 for 34 saves). But Joba has too much heat and charisma to remain in that inglorious role for long. As for the hitting, well, it's still there, along with A-Rod. The Yanks led the league at .290 and 201 homers.
The Blue Jays are forever threatening to move up to elite status, and forever falling short. They still have an enviable rotation led by Roy Halladay (16-7, 3.71). But the Jays batted just .259 last season, third-worst in the league. GM J.P. Ricciardi traded third baseman Troy Glaus to St. Louis for Scott Rolen, a risky move considering that Rolen missed 50 games last season and was ineffective because of injuries. The hope here is that the outfield of Vernon Wells (.245, 16, 80) Alex Rios (.297, 24, 85) and Matt Stairs (.289, 21, 64) can carry the offense. But that didn't work last year. Another bad omen: closer B.J. Ryan was out with soreness in his throwing arm in the spring.
Tampa Bay made some serious moves in the offseason, among them acquiring righthander Matt Garza (5-7, 3.69) to buttress a decent rotation that includes Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.48) and James Shields (12-8, 3.85). Kazmir had shoulder problems at the end of last season and obviously needs to stay healthy for the Rays to make a move. Troy Percival (3-0, 1.80) comes from the Cards to take over as the closer. The Rays had the worst ERA (5.53) in the league last season, so there is much work to be done. The best hitter, still, is Carlos Pena (.282, 46, 121). B.J. Upton (.300, 24, 82) and Carl Crawford (.315, 11, 80) combined for 72 steals last season, and drive opposing pitchers wild — quite literally.
The Orioles somehow finished ahead of the Rays last season, but last place beckons. Baltimore is rebuilding, and no longer has troubled Miguel Tejada, traded for five players. The pitching staff was second-to-worst in 2007, and journeyman minor leaguer George Sherrill was named as the O's closer. Good luck to all.
Central
The Tigers have big, scary teeth. Already the second-best hitting team in the AL, GM Dave Dombrowski acquired third baseman Miguel Cabrera (.320, 34, 119) and shortstop Edgar Renteria (.332, 12, 57) to join these big bats in the lineup: centerfielder Curtis Granderson (.302, 23, 74), second baseman Placido Polanco (.341), DH Gary Sheffield (.265, 25, 75), right fielder Magglio Ordonez (.363, 28, 139), first baseman Carlos Guillen (.296, 21, 102) and catcher Ivan Rodriguez (.281).
Detroit also landed fireballing Dontrelle Willis from Florida. Willis (10-15, 5.17) had a lousy season in 2007, but everyone in the game knows his history and potential. Even if you don't believe in Kenny Rogers — this predictor doesn't — a rotation that brings Willis together with Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66) and Jeremy Bonderman (9-13, 4.76) should be sufficient. The bullpen remains a mess, and a potential Achilles heel — especially after Joel Zumaya's shoulder injury.
Cleveland came within a game of the World Series last season, mostly due to the 1-2 rotation punch of Cy Young winner C.C Sabathia (19-7, 3.21) and Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06). In the power-driven AL, the Indians may not be up to snuff. There are no offensive superstars in the lineup. Instead, Cleveland wins with balance and patience. Admirable traits, yet the Indians may find themselves the odd team out in September if their rotation slips just a bit. Expect some distractions this season around Sabathia, who is set to become a free agent in the fall and will not sign with anyone until then.
The White Sox won a championship in 2005 on the strength of their rotation. By last season, Chicago was the third-worst pitching team in the league with a 4.77 ERA. The starters — Javier Vazquez (15-8, 3.74), Mark Buehrle (10-9, 3.63), Jose Contreras (10-17, 5.57), Gavin Floyd (6-10, 6.30) and John Danks (6-13, 4.33) aren't going to scare anybody. Despite some nice on-paper names like Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko, the White Sox had the worst hitting team in the AL last season, by far, batting .246. Newcomer Orlando Cabrera at shortstop is only new in Chicago. At age 33, call him pre-owned. The bullpen isn't great either.
The Twins had a sub-.500 year in 2007, and will likely sink further without mainstays Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. Minnesota was punch-less, 13th in the league with 118 homers. Delmon Young (.288, 13, 93) may help a little and a new infield can't hurt. But finding somebody to fill Santana's 219 quality innings is an impossible task.
The Royals signed outfielder Jose Guillen (.290, 23, 99) and strengthened the bullpen with Yasuhiko Yabuta and Ron Mahay. The pitching really isn't bad. But Kansas City is still basically the same team that hit only 102 homers last season, worst in baseball, and is practically un-watchably dull.
Western
Two big moves should cement the Los Angeles Angels as the frontrunner in this flawed division. Torii Hunter (.287, 28, 107) provides needed power to a lineup that smacked only 123 homers last season. And starter Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23) comes from the White Sox to join a solid rotation of John Lackey (19-9, 3.01), Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) and Jered Weaver (13-7, 3.91). Closer Francisco Rodriguez (40 for 46 saves) is one of the very best in the league.
The Angels play Mike Scioscia-style baseball, which means they create runs on the bases, not necessarily at the plate. They stole 139 bases last season, led by Chone Figgins (41) and Reggie Willits (27). Hunter stole 18 last season, and can be expected to break 20 easily under Schioscia.
Seattle won 88 games last season, something of a triumph for the forever-rebuilding Mariners. The loss of Guillen will hamper a lineup that hit for average, .287, but was only seventh in runs scored. Opponents batted .281 against the Mariners' staff, and .294 against their starting rotation. Closer J.J. Putz (40 for 42 saves) was a cheerier story. And if nothing else, it's always fun to watch the amazing Ichiro Suzuki, who batted .351 with 37 steals.
In Texas, it's time to write off the Rangers again before the season begins. This spring is no exception. The Rangers aren't terrible. They're just chronically mediocre. If they are to challenge the Angels, the bats must revive from a year-long slump (.263) and starters Kevin Millwood (10-14, 5.16) and Vicente Padilla (6-10, 5.76) need to improve considerably.
The Oakland A's traded for many, many prospects in the offseason, but you have to be a big believer in Moneyball to think such investments mean immediate contention. The loss of both Nick Swisher and starter Dan Haren can't be under-estimated. Both players performed steadily for the past three seasons. The starting rotation is now a patchwork of recovering surgical patients, including Chad Gaudin (11-13, 4.42) and Justin Duchscherer (3-3, 4.96). Billy Beane is remodeling everywhere, and 2008 will be the greatest test yet of the GM's alleged genius.