Voters not quite ready for tax increase recalls

Published 12:05 pm Thursday, September 20, 2007

By Staff
LANSING – As legislators debate the issues of revenue enhancements for the FY 2008 budget – known to everyone outside of Lansing as tax increases – voters are waiting, watching and hoping.
For some, tax increases are a reason to dust off the recall threat. But a new survey of Michigan voters shows that th public does not seem ready to pull the recall trigger.
"These results should be very reassuring to the dozens of legislators who are suffering from a severe case of 'Drolet-o-phobia' – the fear of recall threats from a right wing white guy from Macomb County," said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of The Rossman Group. "In fact, even Macomb County voters are recall-wary. To me, this says: vote your conscience for the good of the state and forget the pig in the parking lot."
The statewide survey conducted by Denno-Noor Research, in partnership with The Rossman Group, asked: "To balance the state budget, some have stated that the Michigan Legislature might need to raise taxes. Others have stated that if the Michigan Legislature raises taxes they would lead efforts to recall those elected officials. How seriously would you consider voting to recall your state representative or state senator if they voted to increase taxes? Would you definitely consider voting for a recall, strongly consider voting for a recall, consider voting for a recall, probably not consider voting for a recall or not consider voting for a recall?"
Twenty-two percent of the electorate would definitely be ready to recall their legislator if he or she voted to raise taxes. Eleven percent would "strongly consider" voting in favor of a recall and 18 percent said they would "consider" a recall.
Meanwhile, 12 percent indicated they would "probably not support" a recall and 32 percent said they would "not support " a recall.
"Anytime a lawmaker faces a situation where half of their constituents would to some degree 'consider a recall,' they should proceed cautiously," said John T. Reurink, president of Michigan Information and Research Service Inc. (MIRS newsletter). "But, lawmakers also have to realize that doing nothing at this late date isn't an option. The reaction of constituents to a state government shutdown would be far worse for state elected officials who couldn't manage to avoid it."
"Starting with 51-percent support is no way to launch a successful recall effort," said Denno-Noor President Dennis Denno. "Part of that recall support will erode based on partisanship and familiarity with the incumbent. While certainly cause for concern, state legislators who are doing their constituent work and staying in communication with their voters should not see much serious recall attention."
In addition, as legislators talk about the possibility of a government shutdown to help tackle the state's budget deficit, the state's voters believe such a shutdown would hurt them or their families.
The question was worded as follows: "Since the governor and the Michigan Legislature are having a difficult time balancing the budget, some have stated that Michigan might face a government shutdown, which means state campgrounds could close, health care inspections could stop and licenses would be difficult, if not impossible, to obtain.
"How would a shutdown of state government affect your and your family – severely, moderately slightly or not at all?"
"Legislators take note: When three out of four people in Michigan know a government shutdown will hurt them, maybe they know something you don't. Quit stalling, vote for a tax increase and get on with the business of running the state," Rossman-McKinney said Wednesday.
"Twenty-one percent of those surveyed thought that a potential government shutdown would 'severely affect me and my family,' " said Reurink. "Additionally, 23 percent felt that a shutdown would 'slightly affect me and my family,' while 19 percent felt that a shutdown would 'not affect me and my family."
"No surprises when looking at partisanship," Denno noted.
"Twenty-seven percent of strong Republicans thought a shutdown would not affect them, while only 12.5 percent of strong Democrats thought a shutdown would affect them."
Methodology
This survey was part of The Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor quarterly survey of the Michigan electorate, for which 600 respondents were surveyed between May 14 and May 17.
Participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior.
A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2008 election.
The margin of error is plus/minus 4 percent.